Should You Worry About AI Taking Your Job?
In a small German town in 1886, Karl Benz unveiled his invention: the Benz Patent-Motorwagen. With its engine roaring, it rolled through the streets, leaving people amazed. This horseless carriage marked the start of a new era, showing the world the power of human creativity and paving the way for modern transportation.
“I believe in the horse. The automobile is a temporary appearance” — Wilhelm II, Emperor of Germany, 1916
In the early 20th century, skepticism of this new invention grew, and it had to happen. Why wouldn’t it? Countless livelihoods hung in the balance. Many people, particularly those with vested interests in traditional modes of transportation like horse breeders and carriage makers, were doubtful about the long-term viability and practicality of automobiles. But, more than that they feared the erosion of skills honed over generations.
If this new invention proves successful, it could threaten the livelihoods of many. From those who care for, groom, and exercise horses, to specialists like farriers who tend to hooves and shoeing, and roles such as stable masters, postilions, and harness makers.
Fast forward to 100 years, We are living in probably the best time to be alive. I have covered in my another blog about how this is the best time to be alive. We are healthier, wealthier, and more educated than at any time in history.
How is it that with all the automation and expansion of innovation, we were supposed to be replaced by machines, and yet here we are still waiting for that day?
In 1960, Norbert Wiener A Computer Scientist and mathematician wrote “Why Machines Should Not Replace Men,” published in the magazine “The Atlantic Monthly”. It was a take against the widespread replacement of human workers by machines. He raised concerns about unemployment, income inequality, and the loss of human skills and creativity in a mechanized world. Yet, six decades later, there are still many times more people employed today than there were anytime before.
Andrew Yang, a candidate in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries, ran his campaign with the idea of plans to give every American adult $1,000 a month in universal basic income (UBI) as a way to offset job loss from automation. His proposal gained tremendous attention and approval from young people. This was even before ChatGPT came out. The skepticism of tech taking over jobs was still prevalent, akin to a simmering pot.
But there’s something Andrew Yang needs to understand before he proposes to print money and create hyperinflation like we’ve never seen before.
The wrecking of jobs by new technology is not a new concept. About 80% of the job roles from the 18th century have either disappeared entirely or been greatly diminished, with one person now capable of performing tasks that once required the effort of hundreds.
When the desktop computer came onto the scene, Data Entry Clerks, Record Keepers, and Typists were caught off guard. Tasks like recording and searching for data, which previously took humans hours with paper-based methods, could now be completed by computers in seconds. As of now, in reality, there are more IT-related professions than those that were displaced by the PC.
During the earlier days of telephony, companies relied on manual telephone switchboards, where operators connected calls by inserting a pair of phone plugs into the corresponding jacks. Today, we have cellphones that automatically connect your calls without any intermediaries.
Throughout history, whenever new technology pops up, it leads to the creation of new industries for employment.
If you are spending time on internet then the doomers (someone extremely pessimistic) can’t get enough of how AI is going to put all of us out of job, and we will be completely run over by machines. Something, that’s been talked out for over decades now.
So, what’s it going to be? Is the LLM breakthrough going to turn fearmongering into reality?
“The last decade was about distributing data at scale. This decade is about generating data at scale,” I tweeted as I scrolled through another doom post on Reddit about AI.
So, what are the implications of AI functioning in our lives? As mentioned earlier, with the assistance of technology, we are currently living in the best times. Just consider it, traveling has become significantly easier and more affordable with the advent of Instagram, Google Maps, search aggregators like SkyScanner and Kayak, and other travel blogs.
If you were to travel somewhere in the the 1970s, airlines had not yet reached a point where they were operating at economies of scale, meaning they hadn’t expanded to the extent where the unit cost per passenger was reduced due to increased flight frequency or capacity.
As the time goes by, carriers expanded their fleets and increased the volume of passengers they transport, they were able to spread fixed costs, such as aircraft maintenance and administrative expenses, across a larger output. This results in lower average costs per unit, allowing airlines to offer competitive ticket prices while maintaining profitability.
There were a variety of factors that played a role in making flights cheaper, specifically faster software. Software, which is the ever-powerful tool for businesses, enabled tasks like searching through billions of records, inserting, deleting, computing, and generating thousands of itineraries in seconds.
As software became scalable, thanks to cloud computing, edge computing, and other technologies, other industries were able to effectively utilize it. Airlines took it upon themselves to sell seats to prevent you from leaving your cozy couch; earlier, you were more likely to go to an agency that used IATA software to book your flights (Some people still book through agencies).
Instagram, Google Maps, and plethora of online content on travel gives even the most irrationally anxious person the confidence to take the plunge and travel, thus expanding the travel industry market.
Over the years, our technology has been working on reducing poverty, making us healthy and keeping us well informed. With that, the number of millionaires has skyrocketed. Thank you, Internet!
The next phase is about generating data. AI is nothing but generating data based on the parameters you pass on. AI algorithms are designed to analyze vast datasets, extract patterns, and produce new information, which in turn contributes to the ever-expanding reservoir of digital data.
This means that different areas use AI to create new data. For example, there are programs that make up fake data to train other programs, systems that write text when given a topic, and algorithms that draw pictures based on certain features.
Go over to ChatGPT, and write a prompt to “write about Ottoman Empire seige of Constantinople as a rap song.” You will find ChatGPT spitting out verses with as close to historically correct data as possible. You might as well bob your head while you’re rapping to it.
“He who is adaptable is the one who survives” — Charles Darwin
I recently come across Devin — an AI software that writes and debugs code for you. Over the years, we would come across posts about upskilling and learning to code from big media, especially when we complain about not being able to find well-paying jobs.
This time around, it looks like even jobs like Software Engineers are at risk with promises like Devin, who wants to convince companies that we may not need that many Software Engineers to create that big new app.
Still, ChatGPT and other similar AI systems lack the inherent ability to definitively discern whether their output is a genuine product, complete garbage, or something in between.
That is not surprising, cause it doesn’t have the awareness to do so.
At least, for another 5–10 years. I think people who do technical stuff are safe cause ChatGPT is not yet at a level where it can autonomously generate fully functional software solutions that meet all requirements and quality standards. Human creativity, critical thinking, and domain knowledge are still indispensable in the field of technical work.
“I destroy jobs and create better ones” — Vitalik Buterin
Should you be concerned about losing your job to AI?
Historically, technology has always created more jobs than it has eliminated
I don’t want to claim that this is some ironclad rule of nature, but it is at least a clear historical trend. I don’t see any particular reason why modern AI and robotics should turn out to be the the first exception.
I don’t have a crystal ball to predict how AI will affect industries, but one thing is certain based on historical data: it will create new opportunities and industries. With AI, we will be generating a lot of data, from text to audio to videos. Those who are able to capitalize on generating data, and use it to their advantage will be the ones who thrive.
Changing times require changing minds.
Don’t worry about automation. Humans will always find something to do.
P.S I used ChatGPT to proofread this entire article to ensure it didn’t have any grammatical mistakes.
